The COVID Pricing Hangover: Why Some Sellers Still Don’t Believe the Market Has Moved On

I’ll never forget the intensity of Montana’s real estate market during 2021 and 2022. Homes were snapped up in days, buyers waived inspections, and sellers could name almost any price. It was fast, emotional, and fueled by pandemic migration. But those days are gone. What remains, unfortunately, is a “COVID pricing hangover” that continues to influence how many sellers view today’s market.

Nan Wise and I have seen it repeatedly in the Flathead Valley: homeowners convinced their property should still fetch 20 percent more than its actual value. That belief isn’t harmless optimism; it’s one of the biggest reasons listings linger in 2025’s more balanced market.

What the “COVID Mindset” Really Looks Like

When the market surged, traditional data points lost their relevance. Multiple offers clouded logic, appraisals couldn’t keep up, and emotional buying dominated. Fast forward to now, mortgage rates, inflation, and buyer caution have reshaped demand, but psychology hasn’t caught up.

Many sellers still cling to:

• A neighbor’s 2021 sale as a benchmark
• An outdated online estimate
• Or a price that simply “feels right”

When those expectations collide with today’s appraised reality, conflict is inevitable. What this means for you: pricing with nostalgia instead of data almost always results in more time and cost.

Overpricing Doesn’t Just Delay Sales, It Damages Them

We see it often. A home hits the market above fair value, sits for weeks, and quietly loses momentum. Each passing day whispers, “Something must be wrong with that house.”

Buyers pick up on that energy. Competing homes, when priced appropriately, get snapped up while the overpriced one becomes a cautionary tale.

As I often tell clients, “Prolonged days on market create a negative impression. Buyers start wondering what’s wrong.” Once that perception spreads, even a later price drop may not reverse it.

The Cost of Pride (and When Realtors® Walk Away)

Experienced agents sometimes make tough decisions. Nan and I have occasionally ended listings when sellers refused to adjust their pricing approach. It’s never about ego, it’s about maintaining integrity. A reputation for smart pricing builds trust with both buyers and sellers.

We can’t participate in self-sabotage. When sellers ignore the data, everyone loses. The lesson? if your Realtor® recommends a price adjustment, it’s not criticism, it’s professional guidance.

Narrative Moment: A Listing That Confirmed Pricing Is Crucial

Last summer, we listed a charming older home with about 1 1/2 acres of land for a longtime local couple. They were certain it should sell for the same price as their neighbor’s pandemic-era deal two years earlier. Despite data showing a lower comp range, they held firm.

We launched at their number and for the first month, showings were limited, and feedback focused on price. After almost two months and fewer showings, they were still unwilling to adjust by a modest five percent. The home continued to sit with no calls and no new showings.

Eventually, we advised that keeping the property on the market at an inflated price was not in their best interest, as it was ultimately working against their goal of selling. We regretfully terminated the listing. That experience underscored something I often say: the market always tells the truth—and successful sellers pay attention early.

Pricing correctly from the start isn’t settling, it’s strategic.

Moving Beyond the COVID Pricing Hangover

So how can sellers adjust? It begins with partnership and current data. Here are three simple steps that make all the difference:

• Reset your baseline: Focus on today’s comparables, not 2021’s inflated highs.
• Trust the process: Let your Realtor® price based on real-time appraisals, not memories.
• Remember: time is valuable. Listings priced right at launch attract serious buyers and protect your negotiating power.

If you’re unsure how your home stacks up in today’s market, we’re happy to review your local data together and find a price that aligns with both your goals and market conditions. Let’s start with a conversation.

Montana’s Market Is Normalizing, Not Declining

It’s easy to confuse “less frenzy” with “less demand,” but that’s not the case. The Flathead Valley remains highly sought after, with steady interest from buyers seeking space, scenery, and a sense of place. What’s changed is the pace, not the appeal.

Smart sellers know Montana’s correction is actually a sign of health. It filters out speculation and restores balance. Realistic expectations don’t reduce your outcome; they speed it up.

Questions from Our Clients

Why are some sellers still holding out for pandemic-level prices?
Many homeowners are influenced by the prices their neighbors got in 2021 or early 2022. That period was defined by scarcity and emotion. Once those factors faded, values stabilized, but memories haven’t. It’s a psychological lag, not market reality.

How can I tell if my home is overpriced?
If showings are slow, feedback points to pricing, or your listing has sat longer than local averages, it’s time to reassess. Data doesn’t lie. When your price meets buyer expectations, offers follow.

Does lowering the price make me look desperate?
Not at all. A price adjustment shows you’re realistic and motivated. Buyers respect sellers who respond to market signals. A well-timed reduction often brings renewed interest.

Are bidding wars completely gone?
Not entirely, but they’re more targeted. Exceptional properties or well-priced listings can still attract multiple offers. The difference is that buyers now compete based on value, not urgency.

How do Realtors® set a realistic price?
We use a Comparative Market Analysis (CMA), analyzing recent sales, current listings, and pending contracts. It’s a mix of data and local insight that is much more accurate than automated tools.

Can pricing too low backfire?
Some sellers fear leaving money on the table. But competitively priced homes often receive multiple bids, which naturally drive the final price higher. In most cases, smart pricing yields stronger outcomes than inflated ones.

What’s the best time of year to sell in Montana now?
Spring and early summer are still strong, but Montana’s year-round appeal keeps buyers active. The key isn’t market timing, it’s pricing timing.

Will the market ever return to 2021 levels?
Unlikely in the near term. Those were rare conditions driven by global disruptions. Today’s market is more stable, predictable, and healthier long-term. That’s a win for everyone involved.

The market didn’t crash, it adjusted. And that’s a good thing. Buyers are making rational offers again, and sellers who listen to the data still close solid deals. The difference in 2025 is clear: success comes from strategy, not sentiment.

Ready to Find Your Flathead Valley Home?

Buying in the Flathead Valley is about timing, but not the kind you read about online. It’s about knowing when a home fits your life and being ready to make that move with confidence.

Ready to Make a Move?

At P3 & Associates, our goal is to provide you with the data, insight, and local perspective that you can’t find anywhere else. Together, we’ll ensure that you’re not just buying a property but finding your place in the Valley.

Start your conversation with us today, and let’s find the home that’s truly right for you.